I would check. What's the biggest bet he'll call if he has a worse hand? Probably not much. How much is it going to suck if you bet that much and he shoves? A bunch.
Yes, I know I play like a scared little girl.
Question: Is the bluff gobble on the flop when it looks like your oponent has made a continuation bet after missing a common strategy for you? How does it work out?
Either a check or a suck bet, maybe 1/3 of the pot or so. I prefer the check because he probably pulls the trigger with AQ, a holding more likely than most others he has here.
>Full Tilt Poker Game #19138217273: Table Adrenaline - $0.50/$1 - No Limit >Seat 4: Nomoreblackjack ($169.70) >Seat 9: XaQ Morphy ($100) >jimmyhong posts the small blind of $0.50 >walzee65 posts the big blind of $1 >The button is in seat #1 >*** HOLE CARDS *** >Dealt to XaQ Morphy [As Ts] >Nomoreblackjack raises to $2 >XaQ Morphy calls $2 >*** FLOP *** [Qs 8d 2d] >Nomoreblackjack bets $4 >XaQ Morphy raises to $8 >Nomoreblackjack calls $4 >*** TURN *** [Qs 8d 2d] [7c] >Nomoreblackjack checks >XaQ Morphy bets $15 >Nomoreblackjack calls $15 >*** RIVER *** [Qs 8d 2d 7c] [Ac] >Nomoreblackjack checks >XaQ Morphy ???
Check in an instant. Looks like I lucked out - if he can't beat AAQT8, why would he call? And if I can't bet for value, I certainly don't want to try to bluff an unknown opponent holding two pair, or aces with a better kicker. _I_ can't take much pressure if he re-raises, that's for sure...
Now if this was a Bridge quiz, the correct answer would be to fold. I can't imagine how this would be the right play - but remember I mentioned it first!
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I like a good-size river bet here, say $40-$45. My reasoning is that he'll put you on a set, two pair, or a busted flush draw and may be more likely to pay you off with KQ or JJ since it's fairly likely that you're bluffing.
I check. 1) He was on a diamond draw and won't call any bet. 2) He has slow played a set and will come over the top. 3) I don't see him check calling two pair here, but that calls a value bet and wins here. 4) he has played a big queen really wierdly. AQ at least calls and wins and other queens are likely to fold to the third bullet.
Not enough value to bet and I have to fold to anyone coming over the top... Now let's see what others think.
So you are representing "something". AA for now will work. And he has "something" on the flop.
I think the best hand he has is AdQd. Meaning, he had TPTK and a diamond draw on the flop. Too much to give up.
This is also a little problematic on the river. He can now beat KK.
His plan on this hand if he has this is to check-call.
The other hands he might have are QQ and AA.
So. Is there anyway to complete the story that you have AA, and fold the hand?
It still feels like he is playing AdQd....
You really do not want to have a call at all. While the Ace may have some show down value, not against a call. So I make it an expensive "value" bet. A bit over half the pot... Say 65 dollars.
The betting sequence makes sense so far for AA. If y'all had AA, what would you do? Check? Nope. If you looked like you had AA, what could he call with?
If he has the monsters that you guys think, he has REALLY outplayed you.
Some of these monsters will lay down to perceived AA.
There is a nice size pot here, and I think there is a really good chance that by checking you are giving up the pot, that you could win with a bet. And that the folding math is in your favor.
> The betting sequence makes sense so far for AA. If y'all had AA, what > would you do? Check? Nope. If you looked like you had AA, what could > he call with?
> If he has the monsters that you guys think, he has REALLY outplayed you.
> Some of these monsters will lay down to perceived AA.
> There is a nice size pot here, and I think there is a really good chance > that by checking you are giving up the pot, that you could win with a > bet. And that the folding math is in your favor.
> Question: Is the bluff gobble on the flop when it looks like your > oponent has made a continuation bet after missing a common strategy > for you? How does it work out?
I don't do it very often at all. I'll do it in very specific cases where I think I can narrow a range between overpairs and overcards. Say for example I call a raise with 88 on the button. Flop is T62 rainbow and my opponent fires out. This is a perfect time to min raise, since he's pressing the action with an overpair, and he's probably shutting down with overcards.
I also use it occasionally as a min check/raise bluff on the turn in spots where it seems like a good spot.
> Full Tilt Poker Game #19138217273: Table Adrenaline - $0.50/$1 - No Limit > Hold'em - 16:42:33 ET - 2010/03/10 > Seat 1: zahika ($122.10) > Seat 2: jimmyhong ($117.90) > Seat 3: walzee65 ($100) > Seat 4: Nomoreblackjack ($169.70) > Seat 5: Zoroastro ($84.30) > Seat 6: Damn Ringer ($106) > Seat 7: tardonk ($117.15) > Seat 8: Giehse1 ($121.90) > Seat 9: XaQ Morphy ($100) > jimmyhong posts the small blind of $0.50 > walzee65 posts the big blind of $1 > The button is in seat #1 > *** HOLE CARDS *** > Dealt to XaQ Morphy [As Ts] > Nomoreblackjack raises to $2 > Zoroastro folds > Damn Ringer folds > tardonk folds > Giehse1 folds > XaQ Morphy calls $2
Normally I'll fold this to a standard raise, but the gobble is begging to have me bust him, and I have 2 pretty suited cards. Not crazy about the ace, but ok, sure.
This seems like a flop he's either really happy with or hates. Sometimes I'll raise more here, most of the time I'll fold. However, a fairly standard line people make with a set OR a flush darw is a min raise, so wtf, let's try it.
Here it's standard. I make a play at the pot, he calls for who knows what reason. I'm basically shutting down unless a diamond hits the river, and then it depends on which one it is. Or...
So the A hits and he checks. The turn call plus this check tells me a few things. Most importantly, he doesn't have a set. A set is going to try check raising the turn, and if that fails, is likely going to bet the river for value, since his chances are up. Next, he doesn't have an A, and very likely is afraid of it. Someone mentioned AQ in this thread and realistically that's the only possible hand he has that beats me, unless he's raising UTG with A8. However, I think AQ plays a bit more aggressively early on, and probably comes out firing here on the river, not realizing that he doesn't get value from a missed flush draw, but falling into the trap most players do in that they improved so they bet, with little regards to what else is out there. There's a very slight chance he has AK, but I think based on this line it's so slim I'm discounting it.
Based on that I'm 99% sure I have the best hand. His range seems pretty polarized. He either has something that can call a bet or he doesn't. Seems simple when I break it down, but that's really what's going on here. He either has something like KQ/QJ, or a pair that didn't hit a set, or something else random, missed flush draw is possible, as are a bunch of strange variants of hands.
I decided to just ship it in, because that's what people do when they miss their flush draws. I had $75 left and either had to bet $25 or so and fold if he raised, or just ship it in. He called with JJ.
> Check in an instant. Looks like I lucked out - if he can't beat AAQT8, why > would he call? And if I can't bet for value, I certainly don't want to try > to bluff an unknown opponent holding two pair, or aces with a better kicker. > _I_ can't take much pressure if he re-raises, that's for sure...
Looking at the line he takes, other than AQ, what else is going to be there that beats me?
> I like a good-size river bet here, say $40-$45. My reasoning is that > he'll put you on a set, two pair, or a busted flush draw and may be > more likely to pay you off with KQ or JJ since it's fairly likely that > you're bluffing.
Good call. My thinking was the same, except for the fact that the pot is $56 and I have $75 left. I think a bet like $30-$50 looks more like a value bet whereas a shove looks like something a missed flush draw might pull.
> The betting sequence makes sense so far for AA. If y'all had AA, what > would you do? Check? Nope. If you looked like you had AA, what could > he call with?
> If he has the monsters that you guys think, he has REALLY outplayed you.
> Some of these monsters will lay down to perceived AA.
> There is a nice size pot here, and I think there is a really good chance > that by checking you are giving up the pot, that you could win with a > bet. And that the folding math is in your favor.
> Nobody here bluffs?
Only difference here is that I bet that river purely for value, and didn't think of it as a bluff at all.
> So you are representing "something". AA for now will work. And he has > "something" on the flop.
> I think the best hand he has is AdQd. Meaning, he had TPTK and a > diamond draw on the flop. Too much to give up.
> This is also a little problematic on the river. He can now beat KK.
> His plan on this hand if he has this is to check-call.
> The other hands he might have are QQ and AA.
> So. Is there anyway to complete the story that you have AA, and fold > the hand?
> It still feels like he is playing AdQd....
> You really do not want to have a call at all. While the Ace may have > some show down value, not against a call. So I make it an expensive > "value" bet. A bit over half the pot... Say 65 dollars.
> Did I go broke?
Didn't go broke, but didn't have the same thought process I have. I don't think I was representing AA as much as I was representing a flush draw at that point. At least that was my intent. I also think that AQd tries to get it in on the flop, since it's such a strong flop for that hand. Pot is $56 at this point, you have $75 left. So a bit over half the pot is $35, not $65.
> Didn't go broke, but didn't have the same thought process I have. I don't > think I was representing AA as much as I was representing a flush draw at > that point. At least that was my intent. I also think that AQd tries to > get it in on the flop, since it's such a strong flop for that hand. Pot > is $56 at this point, you have $75 left. So a bit over half the pot is > $35, not $65.
I can't manifest people to playing that badly against me. What a hand of "wish" poker by your opponent. What hand could you possibly have, where that betting sequence makes sense?
I am never playing KJ of diamonds that way.
As to what was being represented... It is the beauty of bluffing well, you can represent a universe of hands. So long as the story at the end makes sense and generates the result desired.
I was giving credit somewhat to the other unknown player. He is 169 deep (meaning he winning at least this session), and he is playing .5/1 NL which according to lore plays the same as 2/4 live. Which generally means, he should be paying some attention to "my" hand.
As to the bet amount. I changed my mind half way through the paragraph and forgot to correct it.
I was trying to generate a "fold", because in my universe JJ isn't my opponent. So I am at oak post, half pot, full pot, overbet, ship. And finally decided on overbet. But I was oscillating between half pot and overbet. I chose over bet as that seemed to be more culturally correct at this moment. I didn't choose ship it for exactly the same reason that you did. But I was bluffing and you were value betting.
> So the A hits and he checks. The turn call plus this check tells me a few > things. Most importantly, he doesn't have a set. A set is going to try > check raising the turn, and if that fails, is likely going to bet the > river for value, since his chances are up. Next, he doesn't have an A, > and very likely is afraid of it. Someone mentioned AQ in this thread and > realistically that's the only possible hand he has that beats me, unless > he's raising UTG with A8. However, I think AQ plays a bit more > aggressively early on, and probably comes out firing here on the river, > not realizing that he doesn't get value from a missed flush draw, but > falling into the trap most players do in that they improved so they bet, > with little regards to what else is out there. There's a very slight > chance he has AK, but I think based on this line it's so slim I'm > discounting it.
I guess I'm with you. Makes sense.
> Based on that I'm 99% sure I have the best hand. His range seems pretty > polarized. He either has something that can call a bet or he doesn't. > Seems simple when I break it down, but that's really what's going on here. > He either has something like KQ/QJ, or a pair that didn't hit a set, or > something else random, missed flush draw is possible, as are a bunch of > strange variants of hands.
I assumed a little more agressive early on with QQ good kicker. To define your hand if not win out right. Maybe an attempt to keep the pot small?
> I decided to just ship it in, because that's what people do when they miss > their flush draws. I had $75 left and either had to bet $25 or so and > fold if he raised, or just ship it in. He called with JJ.
And here I am out of my depth. I understand the need to jam given your stack size. I just don't get the call that is beat by anything but a pure bluff with no read on the opponent. You could easily have been playing AK, any big Q, even a set.
I'm curious. You don't hit the ace on the river. River is a rag. It's checked to you. What now?
Chandler
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> I'm curious. You don't hit the ace on the river. River is a rag. It's > checked to you. What now?
Good question. Depends on what rag it is, and how frisky I am. I don't think I shove there on a bluff, since the reason I shoved was for value. Let me think on that one. If I don't reply by Saturday remind me about it and I'll revisit.
> Good question. Depends on what rag it is, and how frisky I am. I don't > think I shove there on a bluff, since the reason I shoved was for value. > Let me think on that one. If I don't reply by Saturday remind me about it > and I'll revisit.
ping -- A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul. George Bernard Shaw
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